The winner is the one who stays calm

An old Arabic proverb says patience is the key to relief. In moments of crisis, it is also the rarest political virtue. Over the past days, however, some actors in this widening Middle East conflict have understood that restraint can be as strategic as force.

The first example comes from the Gulf monarchies. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait have been directly exposed to the regional shockwaves triggered by Iran’s response to the Israeli-American strikes. 

Yet their reaction has been measured. 

Rather than amplifying escalation, they have opted for controlled messaging and diplomatic caution.

Europe, too, has shown a degree of composure that is not always associated with Brussels. In a moment that could easily have fractured the bloc, the European Union has held together. 

Differences remain, but the instinct has been coordination rather than fragmentation. In times like these, the word Union almost earns its capital letter.

Italy’s government has followed a similar line. After a Shahed drone struck the Italian base in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called for national unity rather than alarm. The strike fortunately caused no casualties — Italian personnel had already taken shelter in the base’s underground bunker — but the episode was a reminder of how quickly distant conflicts can brush against European security.

Calm in the Markets

Politics is not the only arena where calm has mattered. Investors have spent the past two weeks repeating the same word to themselves: patience.

Oil markets offer the clearest signal. Brent crude has returned to around 100 dollars per barrel, a level not seen in three and a half years. 

Yet the reaction has been far from panic. Markets are watching carefully, but they are not spiralling.

The same can be seen in the VIX index, Wall Street’s traditional “fear gauge”. It currently hovers around 28 points. That is elevated, but far from extreme. 

Less than a year ago, amid anxiety over Donald Trump’s tariff policies, the index climbed close to 50. During the 2008 financial crisis it surged toward 80.

In other words, markets are nervous but not terrified.

The central bank test

Periods of geopolitical turmoil inevitably test institutions designed to anchor economic confidence. Central banks now face that challenge.

In recent years, Western monetary authorities have focused overwhelmingly on containing inflation. The priority was understandable after the post-pandemic price surge. 

But a new phase may now be emerging, one where financial stability and confidence become just as important as price discipline.

In such moments, central banks must do more than set interest rates. They must project steadiness.

Because in crises like this one, the real strategic asset is not military hardware or economic leverage. It is the ability to remain calm when the world around you is losing it.