Coalition Cracks, Power Shifts, and What Comes Next

From The Hague to Warsaw, coalition cracks and power shifts are shaking up the EU’s direction on migration, defence, and Ukraine. Is Europe entering a new phase of uncertainty or realignment?

Dutch coalition breaks 

The Dutch political scene was thrown into disarray Tuesday morning as far-right leader Geert Wilders abruptly pulled his Party for Freedom (PVV) out of the fragile ruling coalition, effectively toppling Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s government after less than a year in power. “No signature for our asylum plans. No changes to the Main Outline Agreement. PVV leaves the coalition,” Wilders declared bluntly on X, moments before informing PM Schoof that his Ministers were withdrawing from cabinet duties.

The dramatic exit followed a tense standoff within the four-party coalition, which had been grappling for weeks with internal discord over Wilders’ uncompromising 10-point anti-migration plan. 

The now former coalition — a patchwork of Wilders’ PVV, the liberal-conservative VVD, the centrist New Social Contract (NSC), and the agrarian BBB party — had barely found its footing since forming last July. But with Wilders out, the government no longer commands a majority in the Lower House, setting the stage for a snap election and yet another chapter of Dutch political instability. Polls suggest the PVV has dipped slightly since last year’s election — now tied with VVD and the left-leaning GroenLinks–PvdA alliance.

The collapse comes at a critical moment: the Netherlands is set to host a major NATO summit June 24–26, where rising defense budgets and transatlantic coordination — particularly amid growing global instability — are top priorities. With NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte (the Netherlands’ former PM) and Donald Trump expected to take center stage, the Dutch government’s implosion raises fresh doubts about national readiness and coherence.

Polish Power Shift Adds to the Uncertainty

Meanwhile in Poland, a presidential victory for nationalist Karol Nawrocki — backed by the right Law and Justice (PiS) party — has raised concerns in Brussels. While Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European coalition retains power in Parliament, Nawrocki’s win gives conservatives a veto-wielding counterbalance capable of stalling EU-aligned reforms.

In response, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called a vote of confidence in his government, set to take place on June 11. The move is intended to reaffirm the strength and stability of his pro-European coalition after the narrow election defeat of Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, the government’s preferred candidate. While Tusk’s alliance is widely expected to survive the vote, the gesture is seen as both a political reset and a message to domestic and international observers that the government remains firmly committed to its agenda.

The President-elect Nawrocki has already vowed to block Ukraine’s accession to NATO, arguing it risks dragging the alliance into direct conflict with Russia — a position that deviates sharply from Warsaw’s previously staunch pro-Kyiv stance. While he insists his opposition isn’t pro-Russian, many fear it signals a broader shift in tone that could ripple across EU foreign and defence policy.

What This Means for Europe

Developments in The Hague and Warsaw mark a turbulent moment for the European project. On one hand, Wilders’ dramatic exit may remove a significant obstacle to stronger EU defence commitments and continued aid to Ukraine. On the other, Nawrocki’s rise in Poland introduces a new layer of complexity at the EU’s eastern flank — particularly as Ukraine continues to push for deeper integration with the West.“There was and is — without Wilders — a large majority in the Dutch parliament in favour of supporting Ukraine and reinforcing defence,” Dutch MEP Thijs Reuten noted. But in Poland, where presidential veto power can block legislation, Nawrocki’s victory could frustrate efforts to align fully with EU strategic goals.