Fifty years on, Europe is still learning the same energy lesson

A message circulated in Brussels last week caused a brief stir in the policy bubble. A “leaked” summary of an Energy Supply Policy for the Community appeared on WhatsApp just as tensions in the Gulf were pushing energy markets into nervous territory.

The document set out familiar-looking targets: improve energy efficiency by 10%, increase electrification to around 35% by the mid-2030s (from roughly 25% today), and reduce import dependency to about 40% from the current ~60%.

It sounded like a fresh blueprint for navigating the latest geopolitical shock.

Except it was not new at all. The text dates back 53 years, drafted in the aftermath of the 1973 oil shock, when OPEC imposed an embargo on countries that had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War.

Half a century later, the pillars of the EU’s response to energy crises remain strikingly unchanged: efficiency, electrification and diversification of imports.

A familiar crisis playbook

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Brussels has doubled down on precisely those three principles. Officials insist that the progress made over the past four years—from storage rules to new LNG infrastructure and accelerated renewables deployment—has strengthened the bloc’s resilience.

On paper, the system looks stable.

The Gas Coordination Group and the Energy Union Task Force, convened to assess security-of-supply risks after the latest Middle East escalation, reported that reserves remain comfortable and that there is no immediate threat to European supply.

Yet markets reacted instantly to the first U.S. and Israeli strikes last weekend. Within 24 hours, European gas prices surged by roughly 50%, reaching their highest levels since 2023.

The reason is geography as much as geopolitics. Tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf has been disrupted, while the shutdown of a major Qatari LNG facility—one of the world’s largest—sent a shockwave through global supply expectations. 

Several producers along the Gulf coast have also curtailed output.

A prolonged closure of the Qatari plant or the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global LNG trade passes, would have a profound impact on global energy markets. It’s a risk even EU officials privately acknowledge.

The diversification dilemma

Brussels’ first instinct, once again, has been to look for alternative suppliers.

Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen travelled this week to Azerbaijan to explore additional gas volumes. But Europe’s experience with diversification has been anything but smooth. Each “trusted partner” eventually becomes politically complicated.

Qatar was once viewed as a dependable alternative. The United States then emerged as Europe’s key supplier after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Now both relationships are being reassessed.

Critics argue that diversification alone cannot be the answer. Several voices in the European Parliament, including within the S&D group, warn that constantly chasing new suppliers risks locking Europe into expensive fossil imports instead of accelerating investment in renewables, grids, flexibility and energy efficiency.

Meanwhile, some actors stand to benefit from the disruption. American LNG exporters have already seen their role in Europe expand dramatically.

U.S. LNG shipments to the EU rose from 18.9 bcm in 2021 to 79.4 bcm in 2025, making the United States Europe’s dominant external supplier. At the same time, American LNG remains among the most expensive sources on the global market.

New LNG terminals built across Europe since 2022—with more under construction in Italy, Greece, Latvia, Estonia and Ireland—will largely handle these shipments.

In recent months, Brussels had quietly explored ways to reduce dependence on American LNG, citing both price concerns and political uncertainty in Washington. But if Middle Eastern supply disruptions persist, the economics of that equation may change again.

Domestic production offers another potential avenue. Even here, American influence is well established, with U.S majors Chevron and ExxonMobil set to begin drilling for gas in Greece’s territorial waters.

Washington, for its part, has made its position clear. President Donald Trump recently declared that “the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”

Autonomy unfinished

Diversification is only one piece of the puzzle.

The EU is also pushing forward with electrification and system integration, including the Grids Package proposed last December, while preparing new measures to address structural energy price disparities across the bloc.

Later this year, the Commission is expected to outline the next phase of Europe’s renewable integration strategy for the coming decade.

But maintaining a coherent path toward energy autonomy will ultimately fall to the European Parliament and the Council.

With countries like Hungary and Slovakia already calling for revising the ban on Russian gas, and others, like Italy, still heavily dependent on gas, it will be a tough challenge. 

If history is any guide, the lesson of the 1973 oil shock is simple: energy security cannot be built overnight.