France: Le Pen appeal puts 2027 race on notice

The appeal trial over the National Front’s use of European Parliament assistants has become more than a legal reckoning. It is now a live test of who leads France’s far right into the 2027 presidential election.

Marine Le Pen, deputy and president of the Rassemblement National group in the French National Assembly, is convicted of participating in a scheme that misappropriated public funds by having parliamentary assistants paid by the European Parliament while working primarily for the party, then known as the National Front. 

Prosecutors argue that Le Pen and her co-defendants used the monthly allowances assigned to MEPs to remunerate staff who should have been supporting parliamentary work, but instead served party functions. The alleged misconduct spans three parliamentary terms, from 2004 to 2016, and involves former MEPs, party officials and assistants.

On 31 March 2025, Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison, including two years of actual imprisonment, and five years of ineligibility for public office with immediate effect. 

She has since appealed the ruling, with proceedings opening on 13 January and expected to run until 12 February. All defendants were found guilty at first instance to varying degrees of participation in the scheme.

If the five-year ineligibility is upheld, Le Pen would be barred from running in the 2027 presidential election. The appeal verdict, expected by summer 2026, could reshape the French political landscape less than two years before the vote.

Power shift inside the Rassemblement National

Polling suggests the centre of gravity inside the party may already be moving. A survey by the Verian institute for Le Monde and L’Hémicycle, published on 11 January, shows Jordan Bardella emerging as a far more credible candidate to represent the Rassemblement National: 49% of French respondents believe he has the best chance of winning the presidency, compared with 18% for Le Pen.

A separate Elabe poll for BFMTV, published on 14 January, points in the same direction among RN voters. A majority, 58%, consider Bardella best positioned to represent the party, compared with 35% for Le Pen. Beyond the RN base, scepticism remains high, with 51% of French respondents saying they would choose “neither candidate.”

Image Credit: Pietro Naj-Oleari © European Union, 2015 — CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 https://www.flickr.com/photos/european_parliament/19334069189