France’s election is becoming Europe’s biggest political test

Marine Le Pen’s legal troubles may dominate the headlines. But the real question is what a victory for the French far right would mean for the future of the European Union.

Marine Le Pen’s conviction for the misuse of European Parliament funds closes one legal chapter while opening a far more consequential political one.

The real story is not whether the leader of the Rassemblement National could end up campaigning with an electronic ankle monitor. It is that France is heading towards the 2027 presidential election with the far right closer to the Élysée Palace than at any point in the Fifth Republic.

It would be a mistake to view this solely through the lens of the courts. Judicial rulings establish individual responsibility; they rarely settle political debates. If anything, they often reinforce the narrative of persecution on which populist movements thrive.

Marine Le Pen understands that better than anyone.

That helps explain why she insists she remains a presidential candidate. Winning the Élysée is only part of the calculation. Stepping aside would also mean surrendering control of the Rassemblement National to Jordan Bardella, the party’s 30-year-old president and the politician many now see as the future face of Europe’s nationalist right.

And that is where the real political story begins.

The Bardella factor

Unlike Le Pen, Bardella has worked carefully to make himself acceptable to a broader conservative electorate.

He has cultivated the image of a pragmatic nationalist rather than a political firebrand, positioning himself closer to the language of Europe’s mainstream conservative parties than to the confrontational style traditionally associated with the French far right.

Young, media-savvy and disciplined, Bardella has also proved capable of engaging with business leaders and moderate voters who once viewed the National Front as politically untouchable.

That is no small transformation.

For the first time, the French far right is no longer simply trying to channel protest. It is positioning itself to govern.

Le Pen’s proposed ticket—with herself as president and Bardella as prime minister—is designed to broaden the far right’s electoral coalition. It combines the enduring strength of the Le Pen name, which continues to mobilise the party’s core electorate, with Bardella’s growing appeal among conservative voters who have so far kept the French far right from clearing its final electoral hurdle.

Leaving Europe is no longer the strategy

The European far right has evolved.

The objective is no longer to leave the European Union. That political chapter has largely closed.

Today’s strategy is more sophisticated. Remain inside the institutions while gradually reducing their political weight, shifting power back to national capitals and slowing, or reversing, further European integration.

It is an approach Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has pursued for years.

It is also the political direction of the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament, where Bardella has emerged as one of the alliance’s leading figures.

The goal is no longer to dismantle the European Union from the outside. It is to redefine it from within.

The question Europe should really be asking

For pro-European parties, the more pressing challenge is understanding why nationalist movements continue to resonate with millions of voters. At a time when global power is increasingly concentrated in continental-scale actors such as the United States, China and India, calls to reclaim national sovereignty continue to gain traction across Europe.

Simply warning about the dangers of populism will not reverse that trend.

Europe must instead demonstrate that integration delivers tangible results: stronger economic growth, greater security, effective management of migration, technological leadership, energy independence, a credible European defence and rising living standards.

Unless citizens see that European cooperation improves their everyday lives, the political space for those offering simple answers to complex problems is unlikely to shrink.

More than a French election

The stakes extend far beyond Paris.

France is a founding member of the European Union, its second-largest economy, its only nuclear power after Brexit and a central actor in European defence, foreign policy and economic governance. A far-right victory at the Élysée would inevitably reshape the balance of power across the Union.

The 2027 presidential election therefore has the potential to become Europe’s most consequential political test since the Brexit referendum. Its significance reaches well beyond Marine Le Pen or the outcome of a single national contest. The campaign will reveal whether the European project still commands public confidence at a time of mounting geopolitical rivalry and economic uncertainty.

Across the continent, governments and investors will be watching closely because the consequences will extend far beyond France’s borders. The direction of European integration, the cohesion of the Franco-German partnership and the Union’s capacity to act collectively could all be influenced by the result.

This election will ultimately test the political appeal of competing visions for Europe’s future: one centred on deeper cooperation, the other on a stronger return to national sovereignty.