US–China trade showdown tilts decisively toward Beijing

If this were a football match, 2025 would have ended with Beijing comfortably beating Washington 5–2. That is the gap in GDP growth between the two superpowers, according to figures published today by the Financial Times. 

The imbalance helps explain why the Trump administration continues to lash out on trade, combining tariffs by the bucketload with erratic geopolitical moves, from Venezuela to Greenland.

China pulls further ahead on trade

For China, 2025 marked a record year. Its trade surplus, exports minus imports, reached $1.2 trillion. The United States posted the mirror image: a $1.1 trillion trade deficit. Those opposing figures sit at the heart of Washington’s current economic diplomacy.

Export data underline the divergence. Chinese exports rose by 6.1 per cent in 2025 to $3.77 trillion. U.S. exports, by contrast, stalled at around $2.1 trillion.

China has continued to rein in imports, which grew by just 0.5 percent last year. Official customs data show the country’s trade surplus has almost doubled since 2021, rising from $676 billion to $1.19 trillion. 

The increase reflects a strategic shift in export destinations, away from reliance on the U.S. market and toward the EU, ASEAN, Africa and Latin America.

Bilateral trade figures tell a similar story. China exports roughly $430 billion in goods to the United States, while U.S. exports to China amount to about $150 billion – a three to one imbalance. The resulting U.S. deficit on bilateral trade stands at around $280 billion. 

Today, the United States accounts for just 8.8 percent of China’s total trade. From Washington’s perspective, the deficit with China is narrowing but remains substantial. 

In December 2025, U.S. imports from China fell by around 30 per cent. More than a third of that decline, however, is largely cosmetic, driven by rerouting through Vietnam, Mexico and south-east Asia. Overall U.S. imports remain high, having shifted geography rather than disappeared.

In short, tariffs have reduced China’s direct footprint in U.S. trade statistics without shrinking the overall deficit. More significantly, economic interdependence between Washington and Beijing is steadily eroding, with consequences reaching far beyond trade.