Why Trump Chose the Arab Countries for His First Official Trip

A Double Valence, that’s the initial impression following the announcement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first official organized trip to the Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates), which is already set to take place this week.

The first level of analysis is well summed up by the comment of a Saudi official: “Business, business, business!” Fully aligned with Trump’s approach of negotiating on everything to protect U.S. economic and commercial interests, particularly for his Republican voter base at home.

But that’s not all. This move also plays out on another level: a clear act of competition with China, placing a major bet on the Arab table, driven by the awareness that the U.S. has lost significant ground in the region to Beijing. It’s a well-established fact that China has invested staggering amounts in recent years, starting with Saudi Arabia and extending to other Arab nations.

Returning to Washington (and Mar-a-Lago) with agreements and investment pledges totalling around one trillion dollars would represent a major win for the Trump administration at this complex moment, dominated by armed and trade conflicts. It would mean regaining lost time and influence, according to Trump, lost because of the international failures of the Biden presidency.

The Arab Promises

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, shortly after Trump’s election, had pledged $600 billion in investments in the United States over the next four years. But that wasn’t enough for Trump: “I’ll come if you pay $1 trillion to American companies in four years,” he said in March during a press conference with U.S. media.

That’s the real prize at stake in the Business Forum in Saudi Arabia, featuring Saudi and American companies focused on technology, artificial intelligence, and energy. According to the Financial Times, U.S. big tech CEOs are expected to attend (Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Fink).

On the table: at least $100 billion in military supplies—missiles, radar systems, and transport aircraft—as well as agreements in the energy and mining sectors.

The same tune plays in Qatar, where announcements of investments between $200 and $300 billion are expected, including a mega deal on commercial aircraft with Boeing.

And in the Emirates, the music turns into a full symphony for Trump, with $1.4 billion in promised U.S. investments over the next 10 years in semiconductors, energy, manufacturing, and AI.

The second valence of the trip is also geopolitical in nature—and twofold. On one side, as the Washington Post put it with the headline “bypass Israel”—a phrase that says it all.

On the other side lies the unresolved issue of the Iranian nuclear program, which weighs heavily on Trump’s Arab negotiations. Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati pressure could be significant, urging an urgent détente between Tehran and Washington. Such a move could lead to a de-escalation of the broader Middle East conflict.

Abraham Accords: The Underlying Issue

The U.S. is keeping a low profile on one of Trump’s key diplomatic goals: the Abraham Accords, namely the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

At present, given the extremely complex international context, the file appears to remain shelved. But that doesn’t mean the issue has gone cold.

What’s at stake is the urgent and dramatic humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which resonates far more deeply in the Middle East than in the West. Israel’s stubborn refusal to agree to a ceasefire could, this time, act more as a unifying force than a divisive one.