The EU wins in Moldova, but bigger battles to come

World champion of last-minute sprints and photo-finish victories––that’s the European Union. It always appears on the verge of collapse, only to pull off a recovery just as the doubters gather. That is the aftertaste of the pro-European outcome of Moldova’s parliamentary elections. 

The former Soviet republic, with just 2.3 million inhabitants seemed––far fewer than the city of Rome––looked to many international observers like fertile ground for pro-Russian political influences to prevail. And yet, the pro-European Action and Solidarity Party led by President Maia Sandu doubled the score of its rival, the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc, winning 50.16 per cent against 24.26 per cent.

Early indications suggest that fears of Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace and  creeping of a hybrid conflict swayed voters towards the European camp. Nonetheless, it should not be mistaken that the country has firmly set its course for Brussels and Strasbourg. 

The first matter to consider is that only 52 per cent of voters cast their ballot for Sandu’s party. This translates roughly into one in four Moldovans. Secondly, the parliamentary majority is anything but decisive. In terms of seats, the balance is tight with 53 seats to 48 for the opposition, or at best 55 to 46. While the result is significant, it is only a first step.

“Moldova’s vote is a clear yes to a European future,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas commented on X. “Despite Russia’s massive efforts to spread disinformation and buy votes, no force can stop a people committed to freedom. We stand with Moldova on their path to the EU,” she said.

Her words were strong, yet the victory remains fragile and limited in scope. For now, Europe must settle for a small win, while bigger battles lie ahead.