OPINION – Brexit proves the UK was better off in the EU

The source is hard to dispute. Researchers from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Bank of England now offer the clearest assessment yet of what Brexit has delivered. A decade after the referendum, the economic picture is unmistakable. Britain is poorer for having left the EU. 

By the end of this year, the country’s GDP is projected to be 6 to 8 percent lower than it would have been inside the bloc, a slow but steady erosion that has accumulated over time. 

The damage does not stop there. Business investment has dropped by 12 to 18 percent, and employment has slipped by 3 to 4 percent. It is an economic setback traced to “a combination of elevated uncertainty [and] reduced demand,” worsened by tangled supply chains, added layers of bureaucracy, and customs systems built with public money that never came into operation. 

After a decade of Brexit, the only thing Britain gained was a smaller economy.

Brexit returns to public debate

The Bank of England’s Chief Economist Swati Dhingra recently warned that the economic costs of Brexit have already eroded investment, productivity and labour supply, limiting the UK’s capacity for future growth. 

Her assessment was echoed by former Conservative Prime Minister John Major, who argued that turning inward at a moment of global volatility has left the country weaker and poorer. In his view, Britain should work toward re-entering the European Single Market, with the possibility of ultimately rejoining the European Union when the next generation takes the lead.

Is a ‘Breturn’ thinkable?

If the Bank of England has now effectively stamped Brexit as an economic misstep, the debate is shifting from economics to politics. Labour has begun to place responsibility squarely on Nigel Farage, the leading Leave campaigner alongside Boris Johnson in 2016 and now the figurehead of Reform UK.

The Starmer government has identified him as the opponent to beat in the next general election, a lesson drawn from recent local election losses. Starmer is also tying Farage directly to the painful tax increases announced in the latest budget, arguing that the need to patch up public finances is itself a legacy of Brexit-era choices. While political parties manoeuvre, the working class continues to bear the consequences. Wages remain flat, the cost of food keeps rising, and households feel little relief eight years after the referendum’s promises. So the question hangs in the air. Breturn?