Why 2026 is beginning with more strain than resolution

As the world enters 2026, the international agenda is being shaped less by diplomatic breakthroughs than by accumulating points of strain. The uneasy dynamic between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after their Mar-a-Lago meeting, lingering tensions in U.S.–Ukraine relations following Mr. Trump’s encounter with Volodymyr Zelensky, and the hardening confrontation between Washington and Caracas all point in the same direction.

Pressure points in the U.S.–Israel relationship

The Trump–Netanyahu talks in Florida were presented as a bridge toward the second phase of the peace plan unveiled in early October, intended to stabilise the fragile truce that has held in Gaza for nearly three months. In practice, however, the meeting produced more political theatre than diplomatic momentum, reinforcing the appearance of alignment while leaving underlying disagreements unresolved.

Netanyahu again praised Trump as “the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House,” in a familiar refrain that masks a more complex reality. However, both leaders are now navigating a regional landscape marked by diminishing room for manoeuvre, where tactical alignment increasingly conceals strategic divergence.

Those pressures are converging across Gaza, the West Bank and Iran. 

Netanyahu is pressing Washington for stronger backing against Hamas and Iran, even as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to worsen. U.S. officials, however, have signalled discomfort with Israel’s approach in the occupied territories, urging greater restraint despite a governing coalition increasingly shaped by religious and far-right parties.

Trump, for his part, has left little ambiguity about his red lines on Iran, saying the United States would consider renewed strikes if Tehran moves toward acquiring nuclear weapons and viable delivery systems. 

In Israel, President Isaac Herzog has moved to quell speculation that a presidential pardon for Mr. Netanyahu over corruption charges is imminent, highlighting the domestic political pressures now weighing on Israel’s foreign policy.

Lines harden in Ukraine as trust erodes

In the aftermath of his meeting with Trump, Zelensky has sharpened his message: Russia’s claims over occupied Ukrainian territories remain the central obstacle to any peace settlement. Kyiv, he has stressed, cannot simply walk away from those regions, even as it remains dependent on continued U.S. support.

While Zelensky said he believes Trump is pushing for a negotiated settlement, he drew a sharp line on Putin, whom he said he does not trust to want peace. Progress, he argued, will depend on sustained US pressure – a stance at odds with Trump’s assertion that Putin “wants to see Ukraine succeed”.

Ukraine has also rejected Kremlin allegations of a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence, framing the claim as a pretext for escalation and an attempt to complicate diplomatic efforts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has since warned of unspecified “consequences” for Moscow’s negotiating position, without clarifying what form they might take.

CIA strikes Venezuelan port facilities with drones

U.S.–Venezuela relations have meanwhile entered a more dangerous phase. Recent drone strikes on Venezuelan port facilities, attributed to U.S. intelligence operations, mark a significant escalation—even in the absence of reported casualties—and would represent the first known direct U.S. strike on Venezuelan territory.

Separately, a U.S. operation in the eastern Pacific reportedly resulted in two deaths, contributing to an estimated total of around one hundred extrajudicial killings across the region. Together, these actions are renewing scrutiny over the scope, legality and political oversight of U.S. covert operations as Washington enters the new year.