Europe’s strategic moment: Why the EU–India axis matters in a fragmenting world

The conflict in Iran is yet another reminder that the international economy still hinges on fragile fossil fuel chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most sensitive arteries of the global economy, and every crisis in the region immediately reverberates through oil markets, food supply chains and strategic calculations far beyond the Middle East.

Fossil-Fuel Dependence as a Geopolitical Vulnerability

Energy dependence continues to expose states to geopolitical shocks and strategic vulnerability. The energy transition is often framed primarily as an environmental necessity, yet its geopolitical dimension is impossible to ignore. Global economies remain structurally dependent on fossil fuels not only to power industries and transport systems, but also to sustain global food production through fertiliser-based agriculture.

This creates a dual vulnerability: disruptions in fossil fuel supply chains that affect both energy systems and food security.

What initially appears as an energy crisis can therefore quickly evolve into a broader economic and social shock. A serious push towards renewable energy would not only accelerate decarbonisation but also reduce exposure to unstable fossil fuel corridors and the political leverage that accompanies them.

These dynamics formed an important backdrop to many conversations during the 2026 Raisina Dialogue — India’s flagship geopolitical conference — even if they were rarely articulated in these terms, as political attention is currently drifting away from renewables. What emerged repeatedly throughout the discussions, though, was the sense that the international system is entering a more fragmented phase.

Power, technology and capital are dispersing across regions, while the institutional architecture built in the aftermath of the Second World War is struggling to adapt.

The Crisis of Global Governance

Multilateral institutions designed to safeguard global common goods are under strain. From peace and security frameworks to development institutions, confidence in both the effectiveness and the representativeness of these mechanisms has collapsed.

In this evolving landscape, the European Union finds itself at an important strategic juncture. Europe has long positioned itself as a defender of the rules-based international order. Preserving that order today requires more than rhetorical commitment; it requires the ability to operate credibly in a more pluralistic geopolitical environment.

Economic and technological resilience increasingly form part of that credibility. Infrastructure initiatives such as the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor illustrate how connectivity is evolving into a geopolitical instrument.

Transport routes, digital networks, energy systems and supply chains are becoming deeply intertwined. Corridors are no longer designed only to facilitate trade; they are increasingly instruments for diversifying strategic dependencies and strengthening economic security.

This logic extends to technology. As digital systems and critical technologies become embedded in strategic infrastructure, questions of technological diversification are gaining importance. Avoiding new forms of dependency — particularly in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors and digital networks — is becoming central to the broader debate on economic security.

Yet Europe’s strategic positioning cannot be reduced to industrial or technological considerations alone. The geopolitical landscape is also evolving through new political platforms and coalitions.

Forums such as BRICS+ increasingly shape debates on financial reform, development governance and institutional representation. While these platforms do not necessarily constitute a coherent geopolitical bloc, they reflect a growing demand for a more representative international system.

Why the EU–India Axis Matters

This is where the partnership with India becomes particularly consequential.

Strengthening the EU–India axis therefore goes beyond trade or connectivity. Anchored in a shared belief in democratic governance and pluralism, the EU and India are uniquely positioned to help steer an increasingly multipolar international system and ensuring that the governance of global commons remains representative and sustainable.

India also brings an important diplomatic asset: the capacity to engage and maintain dialogue across a wide spectrum of actors and geopolitical platforms. In an increasingly fragmented international environment, this ability to speak to all sides is something Europe may well need to learn from.

In this transactional world, the ability to operate across multiple platforms will define geopolitical relevance. The time has come for the EU and India to be more ambitious and move beyond conceiving their partnership primarily in bilateral terms.

Together, they must drive the next reflection on the inclusive reform of democratic global governance — precisely at a moment when the international system risks drifting toward a logic where power, rather than rules, determines outcomes. In that sense, a stronger EU–India partnership could become one of the most effective anchors for shaping a more balanced and resilient international order.