France: The Prime Minister will seek confidence of the National Assembly on September 8

On Monday, August 25, Prime Minister François Bayrou announced that he will seek a vote of confidence from the National Assembly on September 8. In the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly, this use of Article 49, paragraph 1 of the Constitution represents a real risk of censure of the government.

The Prime Minister will request a vote of confidence on a government declaration concerning the state of public finances and the level of savings to be made in the context of the 2026 budget texts. The main outlines of his plan, unveiled on July 15, include €43.8 billion in savings. François Bayrou had already indicated the main lines of his policy, notably concerning debt or his proposal to abolish two public holidays. With this vote, François Bayrou thus wishes to trigger a shock over the level of indebtedness.

This use of Article 49, paragraph 1 of the Constitution carries the risk of the fall of the current government. The text provides that “the Prime Minister, after deliberation by the Council of Ministers, commits the responsibility of the government before the National Assembly on its program or, if applicable, on a declaration of general policy.” If an absolute majority is reached, i.e., 288 votes if all deputies vote (three seats out of 577 are vacant), the government will fall. Not all deputies need to vote: the majority evolves according to the number of votes cast.
Two major forces in the National Assembly have already declared they will vote against: La France Insoumise (71 deputies) and the Rassemblement National (123 deputies).

Starting Monday, September 1, François Bayrou will receive party leaders at Matignon. The Prime Minister said on TF1 on Wednesday, August 27, that he “has time to consider things” with the political groups as part of the budget debate.

In the event of censure, several scenarios would be available to the President of the Republic: appointing a new Prime Minister, dissolving the National Assembly again, or even resigning.
The possibility of a new dissolution of the National Assembly is the subject of much discussion. Emmanuel Macron had already resorted to dissolution in June 2024, opening a period of great political instability. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said on France 2 on Tuesday, August 26, that a new dissolution of the National Assembly remains a plausible option to resolve “an extremely important conflict between the legislative and the executive,” which has persisted since François Bayrou presented the 2026 budget plan. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, for his part, declared on France Inter that he did not wish for a new dissolution. New elections might not be favorable to the party founded by Emmanuel Macron, currently led by Gabriel Attal.