Iran talks collapse as Trump threatens naval blockade and attacks Pope Leo XIV

Diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions with Iran have stalled, with negotiations ending in deadlock and U.S. messaging growing increasingly erratic.

After 21 hours of uninterrupted talks in Islamabad, U.S.–Iran negotiations concluded without agreement, leaving the fragile truce under strain and the next steps deeply uncertain. Officials have not confirmed whether talks will resume, nor where or when they might take place.

Pakistan, which hosted the discussions, described the outcome as a “pause”. Washington and Tehran, however, have offered no coherent signal on a path forward.

Instead, mixed messages from the United States are compounding the uncertainty. U.S. officials have floated plans to help clear naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a move typically associated with de-escalation and the protection of global shipping. At the same time, President Donald Trump has publicly raised the prospect of imposing a naval blockade on Iran.

A fragile diplomatic chain

A series of loosely connected diplomatic tracks is now under strain, with little clarity on whether any can still stabilise the broader crisis.

In Washington on Tuesday, Israeli and Lebanese officials are expected to meet at ambassadorial level to discuss Israel’s ongoing military operations against Hezbollah on Lebanese territory. Any de-escalation there could, in theory, reopen space for U.S.–Iran dialogue.

Signals across theatres are diverging, and the broader picture is one of fragmentation rather than coordination.

Against this backdrop, Donald Trump has escalated his rhetoric beyond the immediate conflict. In a lengthy post on Truth Social, he criticised Pope Leo XIV, calling him “weak” and “terrible on foreign policy”, and suggesting the pontiff owed his position in part to him.

War dynamics expand

At the same time, other fronts are feeding into the instability.

The Easter truce in Ukraine has ended, with fighting resuming across multiple regions. Both Kyiv and Moscow are attempting to use the Iran crisis to advance their strategic positioning.

Vladimir Putin has sought to present Russia as a potential mediator, while Volodymyr Zelensky is stepping up diplomatic outreach, including contacts with Turkey and Syria, in an effort to reinforce Ukraine’s role in the Black Sea.

Inside the failed talks

The negotiations in Islamabad marked a rare moment of direct engagement.

It was the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that high-level U.S. and Iranian delegations met in person. The Iranian side, numbering more than seventy officials, was led by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The U.S. delegation was headed by Vice President JD Vance and included senior figures such as Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Despite the scale and symbolism, the talks ended after a single 21-hour session without agreement.

The Strait at the centre

In the immediate aftermath, attention has shifted to the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said the U.S. Navy would move to block access to the waterway, effectively imposing a naval blockade on Iran by restricting entry to and exit from its ports. He initially described the move as immediate, before later acknowledging that implementation would take time.

U.S. Central Command has since indicated that any operation would focus on Iranian ports and coastal infrastructure rather than all commercial traffic transiting the Strait.

Trump also warned that countries, including China, should not assist Iran in bypassing potential restrictions.

Operational questions remain unresolved. Without mine-clearing operations, maritime navigation in the Gulf remains uncertain. The United States does not currently have sufficient minesweeping capacity in the region and would likely require allied support, which appears unlikely while the conflict continues.

Contradictions and pressure

Confusion around the Strait had already surfaced over the weekend.

Trump claimed that U.S. vessels had entered the passage and begun clearing mines. Iranian media reported that those ships were forced to turn back.

Before departing the region, Vance maintained that diplomacy remains possible, but only if Tehran accepts what he described as Washington’s “final and best offer”, including a commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons.

His decision to end the talks after a single extended session and return to Washington has raised questions about the durability of the diplomatic effort.

There are limited indications that some groundwork may have been laid. Officials familiar with the discussions say both sides explored confidence-building measures that could support future contacts, though no formal progress was announced.

Trump targets the Pope

Trump’s criticism of Pope Leo XIV marks a further widening of his political messaging.

In his post, he attacked the Pope’s positions on crime and nuclear policy, criticised his broader worldview, and suggested that his election owed something to U.S. support.

The tone reflects a shift toward longer and more expansive statements, with fewer constraints on targets, including figures well outside the immediate geopolitical confrontation.

The Vatican has not responded publicly. Pope Leo XIV is expected to proceed with a planned visit to Africa in the coming days.