Khamenei rattles energy markets as Trump plays firefighter

Iran has signalled it intends to keep fighting the Israeli-American offensive while weaponising the global energy system to do so.

According to the first statements attributed to the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, Tehran is prepared to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as leverage against its enemies and to continue striking Gulf states aligned with Washington and Israel. 

The message sets the tone for the war as it enters its fourteenth day: militarily volatile and economically destabilising.

A leader no one has seen

The declaration arrived in an unusual form. Mojtaba Khamenei did not appear in public. He did not even speak on television. His words were read by a state broadcaster announcer.

The format has immediately fuelled speculation. 

Some reports suggest Khamenei may have been wounded during the first wave of strikes on 28 February—the same attacks that killed his father, Ali Khamenei. 

Other rumours go further, suggesting he could be seriously injured or even dead.

Whatever the reality, the message itself was clear. Iran’s leadership intends to continue the confrontation. And the tone has further unsettled global energy markets already shaken by the conflict and by the disruption of a maritime corridor through which roughly one fifth of the world’s oil normally flows.

Oil shock and economic fallout

The economic consequences are already spreading well beyond the battlefield.

Oil prices have climbed back above 100 dollars per barrel, a level not seen in years. Markets are bracing for a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Faced with that risk, Donald Trump has found himself playing an unexpected role: market stabiliser.

After briefly calming prices by insisting the war would be short, the U.S. president has taken a more concrete step. Washington temporarily suspended sanctions on Russian oil in an effort to ease supply pressures and dampen the surge in crude prices.

The exemption, confirmed by the U.S. Treasury, allows the sale of around 128 million barrels of Russian crude already loaded on eight tankers belonging to the so-called shadow fleet targeted by sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine.

A war on many fronts

Away from the energy markets, the conflict continues to produce smaller but telling incidents across the region.

A drone strike hit the Italian military base in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan, though no casualties were reported. A French soldier was killed by a drone strike elsewhere in Iraq. 

A U.S. tanker aircraft also crashed in the country, apparently not due to hostile fire, though the circumstances remain unclear.

The tensions are also echoing inside the United States. In Michigan, a man drove a vehicle toward the Temple Israel synagogue in West Bloomfield Township before being stopped by police. 

In Virginia, a shooting at Old Dominion University involved an attacker who had previously served in the National Guard and had earlier been convicted of terrorism-related offences linked to support for the Islamic State.

These episodes illustrate how a regional war increasingly casts a wider security shadow.

The cost of escalation

Meanwhile, the bombardment of Iran continues, with strikes carried out by aircraft and missiles.

Washington is now discussing the creation of an international naval coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s a proposal analysts warn would be complex and risky to implement.

Since the conflict began, the United States and Israel are estimated to have struck roughly 6,000 targets. Iran has retaliated with missiles and drones against nine different countries.

The human toll is mounting. Available estimates suggest more than 1,500 people have been killed in Iran, with thousands wounded and over three million displaced. 

Lebanon reports more than 700 deaths and nearly 2,000 wounded, with close to one million displaced. Israel has recorded twelve fatalities. Other countries have suffered scattered casualties, while the United States acknowledges eight soldiers killed and dozens wounded.

The International Energy Agency warns that the world may now be facing the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. Crude production has already fallen by around eight million barrels per day, with another two million barrels blocked. Together, that is equivalent to roughly ten per cent of global demand.

In other words, the war is no longer just a regional conflict. It is rapidly becoming a test of the global economy’s ability to absorb geopolitical shock.