Markets tremble as Trump says the Iran war will end soon

After eleven days of war, the conflict launched by the United States and Israel against Iran is becoming as much an economic crisis as a military one. At least in the way it is now framed by major American media.

President Donald Trump insists the war “will end soon”. The statement appears aimed less at signalling a diplomatic breakthrough than at calming markets unsettled by rising oil prices and falling equities. 

The battlefield, however, tells a different story.

Air strikes, missile launches and drone attacks continue across the region. Iran’s retaliation has become less frequent but not insignificant: another missile was intercepted over Turkey, while drones continue to target Israeli and U.S.-aligned positions.

The New York Times describes the president’s statements as “zigzagging”, while the Wall Street Journal reports that advisers are increasingly pushing the White House to find an exit strategy.

The comparison with last year’s short war with Iran is instructive. In June, hostilities lasted twelve days. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly declared victory, despite the fact that the central objective—the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities—remained unachieved.

This time the war is different.

The objectives are broader and far less clearly defined. Beyond the nuclear programme, the campaign now targets Iran’s missile infrastructure and increasingly the political core of the regime itself. On the first day of the war, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. Power has since passed to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, in a fragile transition.

The human toll has also grown dramatically. Thousands are reported dead in Iran. Hundreds have been killed in Lebanon, where Israel has launched a new air and ground offensive. Dozens of casualties have been reported in Israel and across several Gulf states targeted by Iranian retaliation. The conflict has effectively turned the entire region into a war theatre.

Markets feel the shock of war

The most immediate consequences may be economic.

Oil prices briefly surged above the symbolic threshold of 100 dollars per barrel before retreating slightly. Gas prices are rising. Stock markets are declining. 

In the United States, gasoline prices are approaching four dollars per gallon — a psychological benchmark that resonates far more with voters than abstract macroeconomic indicators.

Energy infrastructure has become a central battleground. Strikes on oil facilities in Iran and across the Gulf have disrupted supply, while insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz has effectively paralysed one of the world’s most critical shipping routes. 

Above all, markets fear one thing: uncertainty about how long the war will last.

For a president who campaigned on promises of “no more wars” and lower prices, the situation is politically awkward. Trump has dismissed rising energy costs as “a small price to pay”, without clearly explaining what strategic outcome would justify that cost.

Behind the scenes, policymakers are scrambling. Finance ministers from the G7, the European Union, Gulf states and OPEC have been consulting on possible responses, but so far without a coordinated plan. 

European leaders also held a video consultation with several Middle Eastern governments in an attempt to contain the economic fallout.

A geopolitical winner already emerges

According to U.S. Central Command, American forces have struck more than 5,000 targets in the first ten days of the campaign, including Iranian vessels, air defence systems, ballistic missile launch sites, drone factories, command centres and key energy and transport infrastructure.

Civilian casualties are increasingly difficult to ignore. 

Reports circulating in U.S. media suggest that an American Tomahawk missile struck the Minab girls’ elementary school on the first day of the war, killing around 175 students. The Trump administration initially blamed Iranian missile misfires.

Beyond the battlefield, the geopolitical consequences are already visible.

One clear beneficiary of the crisis is Russian President Vladimir Putin. With international attention focused on Iran, Moscow faces less pressure over its war in Ukraine. Rising oil prices also boost Russian revenues.

Washington has even granted India a temporary waiver from sanctions to purchase Russian oil — a striking illustration of how quickly geopolitical priorities shift in wartime.

Whatever the military outcome, the war with Iran is no longer just a regional confrontation. It has become a global economic and geopolitical shock.