Middle East turmoil tests European calm

The conflict in the Middle East is spreading beyond Iran, reaching the Gulf and indirectly affecting Europe. Iranian attacks have targeted infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, while several Italian citizens have returned home in recent hours as security concerns grow.

Israel continues military pressure in southern Lebanon, establishing what it describes as a buffer zone that has displaced more than half a million people. 

Meanwhile, tensions remain high in the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic chokepoint through which roughly 30 per cent of global liquefied gas and 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply pass.

Financial markets have already reacted. Brent crude has climbed above $100 per barrel, while European gas prices have surged by more than 40 per cent in just ten days. The economic implications are beginning to ripple across the continent.

In Italy, business association Conflavoro estimates that the crisis is costing the country’s production system roughly €80 million per day. Energy-intensive sectors with strong supply chain exposure to the Middle East and North Africa, including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics and metallurgy, are particularly vulnerable. 

Existing missions expanded

Salvatore Caiata of the Central European Initiative Parliamentary Assembly argues that Europe was largely unprepared for a crisis centred on Iran. 

EU treaties, he notes, were built around the assumption of peace, while much of Europe’s security architecture has historically relied on NATO.

Exposure in the Gulf remains indirect, and Italian authorities say intelligence cooperation has so far helped prevent direct threats. Nevertheless, Caiata stresses that protecting national contingents, citizens and strategic assets in the region will be essential.

Any future deployments, he adds, would likely depend on requests from Gulf Cooperation Council states. At the same time, discussions are intensifying about strengthening Europe’s defence industrial base.

European rearmament accelerates

Across the continent, governments are already adjusting their defence posture. Six European countries including Sweden, Finland, the three Baltic states and Poland are reconsidering or abandoning long-standing commitments to anti-mine conventions or neutral defence doctrines.

Denmark has approved compulsory female conscription, while Germany is accelerating missile development programmes. 

Italy is also participating in long-range missile projects alongside European partners.

Taken together, these developments suggest that Europe is shifting from a geopolitical framework centred on peacekeeping towards a more assertive defence posture. Italy is expected to play an increasingly active role in this evolving security landscape.

Defence technologies

Leonardo Tricarico, former chief of staff of the Italian Air Force, emphasises the importance of preparedness and technological autonomy. 

Europe’s defence industry, he argues, is highly competitive but often fragmented, with several countries developing similar systems instead of consolidating capabilities.

For Tricarico, the challenge is ensuring that Europe develops and owns its defence technologies rather than assembling systems designed elsewhere. Italy, he adds, must continue to protect and promote its network of small and medium-sized defence companies.

Technological innovation is also reshaping the battlefield. 

Israel, for example, has developed next-generation laser defence systems capable of destroying drones at relatively low cost. This could significantly alter the economics of modern air defence.