New tenant in Number 10. A new chapter in EU-UK relations?

By Rory Gilliland

Westminster is heading for another political reset. Following Keir Starmer’s resignation and with no challenger emerging for the Labour leadership, Andy Burnham is expected to become Prime Minister and Labour leader on 22 July.

His return from the Manchester mayoralty follows a decisive by-election victory that has revived Labour’s prospects and disrupted the momentum that Reform UK had built in recent months.

On 29 June, Burnham gave a speech in Manchester where unveiled his programme. Central to his agenda was the concept of “Manchester-ism”, or a greater diffusion of power to mayors and local governments, alongside a “10-year mission” on living standards, reindustrialisation and infrastructure, and a major council housebuilding drive.

However, absent from his speech were concrete foreign policy priorities, not least with the European Union which—along with the United States—constitutes the UK’s foundational post-war relationship and one which is in a state of flux.

Taking over Starmer’s ‘major reset’ mantle

Under Keir Starmer’s premiership, the British Government has pursued a rapprochement with the EU, following the Brexit years under the Tory government, characterised by weak trust, drawn-out negotiations and frostier diplomatic relations.

Starmer’s approach links in with growing economic evidence of Brexit’s hit to the UK’s growth, productivity and investment, as well as polling showing the decision to leave the EU is increasingly seen as a mistake by a majority of the public.

This process led to a series of semi-negotiated agreements on agrifood, emissions trading and youth mobility and notably a high-level EU-UK summit in May 2025, where both parties agreed a security partnership. Despite this progress, further negotiations stalled over the UK’s access to the SAFE programme, the EU programme providing jointly-backed loans to finance defence procurement.

A further summit had been planned for 22 July, however this has now been delayed to October due to the UK leadership change. Ahead of this event, technical teams were reportedly discussing UK access to the Single Market for goods in certain sectors. While progress on this remains uncertain, such an outcome would mark a new step in UK-EU reintegration.

Against this backdrop, Burnham takes up the mantle of an ambitious yet incomplete framework for resetting EU-UK relations.

Burnham’s European inroads

Married to a Dutch national and a prominent supporter of the Remain campaign during the 2016 referendum, Burnham has long been one of Labour’s most outspoken critics of Brexit. As recently as last year, he argued that the UK should ultimately seek to rejoin the European Union.

During his successful by-election campaign in the strongly pro-Brexit constituency of Makerfield, however, he noticeably softened that message, placing greater emphasis on rebuilding Britain’s relationship with Europe than on reopening the Brexit debate itself.

On the campaign trail, Burnham acknowledged that Brexit had been “damaging” for the UK, but argued that reopening the Brexit debate would be the wrong response.

Even so, Burnham has repeatedly argued that the European Union represents Britain’s biggest economic opportunity, pointing to the market “right on our doorstep.” His immediate focus is likely to be deepening cooperation with Brussels rather than revisiting the question of rejoining the bloc, beginning with the implementation of the EU-UK reset negotiated under Starmer.

Despite broad continuity in Labour’s rhetoric on Europe, a Burnham premiership could still alter the tone, and potentially the pace, of EU-UK relations.

His record as Mayor of Greater Manchester suggests a politician who is comfortable taking political risks and translating broad policy ambitions into concrete initiatives. Compared with Starmer’s more cautious and methodical style, Burnham has shown a greater willingness to move quickly when he believes the political case has been made.

If opportunities emerge to deepen cooperation with the EU, particularly in areas such as defence, industrial policy or critical supply chains, Burnham may prove more inclined to pursue ambitious agreements rather than incremental progress.

His governing philosophy could also shape Britain’s external outlook.

Often described as “Manchesterism”, Burnham’s emphasis on devolved growth, industrial renewal and regional resilience is rooted in domestic policy, yet it lends itself naturally to today’s geopolitical realities. For a region such as north-west England, where manufacturing remains central to the local economy, disruptions to global supply chains, energy markets and trade are not abstract foreign policy concerns but everyday economic challenges. That perspective could reinforce a closer partnership with Brussels on issues ranging from industrial competitiveness to economic security and strategic resilience.

In an era of US-China decoupling, Burnham may pursue the path of economic integration with the EU as a matter of economic security and industrial competitiveness.

That thinking is shared by some of his closest advisers. Economist Jim O’Neill, who has advised Burnham informally for several years, has openly criticised the UK’s unquestioning alignment with Washington and has placed greater emphasis on prioritising EU links.

Perhaps the strongest route at Burnham’s avail is his Irish connections. As Manchester’s Mayor, Burnham made efforts to improve relations with the Irish government, including official visits to Dublin, at a time when bilateral relations were at a low point under the Tory-led UK government.

Later commenting on the episode, Burnham expressed, “we were not prepared to let the northwest of England – which has such deep bonds with Ireland – be damaged by the Westminster approach to relations.”

With Ireland now in the driving seat of EU negotiations, through its current Presidency of the EU Council, coupled with the Irish government’s support for UK re-accession, Burnham may operationalise his strong Irish links to drive UK-EU integration.

A new chapter in EU-UK relations?

For its part, the EU as a whole is unlikely to shift its position towards the UK in light of Burnham’s incoming premiership. Although many MEPs and several Member States would welcome a future British return to the European Union, there is broad agreement that any rapprochement must preserve the integrity of the Single Market.

Offering London preferential treatment outside the EU would risk sending the wrong signal to governments and political movements with Eurosceptic ambitions.

There are also worries over how such a process would persist in the event of a victory of arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage in the next UK election. Given this, and Burnham’s recent campaign trail comments, a formal re-accession process is unlikely in the near term.

Keir Starmer leaves office with a relationship that is noticeably warmer than the one he inherited. His “reset” with Brussels and the agreements already negotiated provide a stronger platform than any UK government has enjoyed since Brexit.

Burnham’s political instincts suggest he may be prepared to build on that foundation with greater ambition. His pro-European outlook, combined with a stronger emphasis on industrial policy and economic resilience, aligns with several of the priorities currently shaping the EU agenda.

The real test, however, will be political rather than diplomatic. Britain enters this new chapter facing weak economic growth, widening regional inequalities, domestic political fragmentation and an increasingly volatile international environment. Whether Burnham sees closer cooperation with the EU as part of the answer to those challenges, or simply another political battle to be managed, will shape the next phase of EU-UK relations.