Ukraine and Iran: ending one war, averting another

As the war in Ukraine approaches its fifth year and the risk of a new confrontation with Iran sharpens, diplomacy is tentatively re-entering the picture. This week, parallel rounds of talks are expected to open on two of the world’s most dangerous fault lines, raising hopes of de-escalation even as violence and distrust persist.

In Abu Dhabi, officials from Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. are due to meet for another round of discussions, a follow-up to talks held on January 25. 

The choice of the United Arab Emirates underscores the search for neutral ground as the conflict grinds on with no decisive breakthrough in sight. At the same time, Ankara is preparing to host indirect discussions between Iran and the U.S., mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Israel, deeply wary of any misstep that could ignite a wider regional conflict, is watching closely.

The Ukraine talks resume after what had been described as a winter truce, an initiative announced by Trump and presented as a significant concession by Putin. The reality proved far more limited. Moscow quickly reframed the pause as narrow and temporary, and attacks continued across much of the country. 

While Kyiv saw a brief lull, Russian missile and drone strikes persisted elsewhere, largely at night.

The human cost has continued to mount. On Sunday, a drone struck a bus carrying miners, killing at least 15 people, the third attack on public transport in just a matter of days. Another drone hit a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia. Although no one was killed, several people were injured.

Diplomatic efforts with Iran follow a week marked by acute tension. President Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out military action against Tehran and has emphasized the scale of the American military presence in the region. Yet for now, diplomacy appears to have edged out confrontation, albeit amid mixed and sometimes contradictory signals from Washington and Tehran. 

Ukraine: Abu Dhabi talks fail to halt fighting and bombardments

As freezing temperatures bear down on a country already exhausted by war, diplomacy has again failed to deliver relief on the ground. Talks on Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, initially expected to resume on Monday, were quietly postponed to Wednesday and Thursday, February 4 and 5, with no explanation offered.

What did take place over the weekend was a meeting far from the battlefield. In Florida, Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev met with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff. Witkoff later described the encounter as “positive and constructive,” though no details were made public.

In Kyiv, the assessment was stark. As he does each week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky detailed the scale of Russian pressure. 

In January alone, Ukraine was struck by some 12,000 bombs, drones and missiles, he said, targeting energy facilities, railways and other critical infrastructure. Zelensky again stressed the urgency of air defence, warning that missiles for Patriot systems, NASAMS, F-16s and other platforms are needed “every single day.”

Moscow, for its part, insists the momentum remains on its side. Russia’s defence ministry claims its forces have taken two villages: Zelene in the Kharkiv region and Sukhetske, about 15 kilometres north of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. It also says Russian air defences intercepted and destroyed 21 Ukrainian drones overnight between Saturday and Sunday.

Iran: the nuclear question

While the fighting in Ukraine grinds on, a parallel diplomatic track is unfolding with Iran. According to Axios, dialogue between Washington and Tehran is taking place through multiple channels and is expected to culminate later this week in talks in Ankara between Witkoff and Iranian plenipotentiaries.

Over the weekend, tentative signs of de-escalation emerged from Tehran. Iran denied state television reports of military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and released Erfan Soltani, a 26-year-old protest leader arrested on January 8. 

Soltani had been sentenced to death for propaganda against the state, a verdict that was later withdrawn.

On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian published a list of 2,986 people killed during January’s protests. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has described the demonstrations as a coup attempt and warned that any conflict with the U.S. would not be confined to Iran but would ignite a wider regional war.

Trump struck a more optimistic tone, saying Iran is engaging seriously and expressing hope for an acceptable deal.

Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, met in Tehran with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reportedly offered to host Iran’s enriched uranium.

Aside from Khamenei, the tone from Tehran has been notably conciliatory. Pezeshkian said war would serve neither Iran nor the U.S. Larijani spoke of progress in negotiations. Araghchi said he was confident an agreement could be reached, even as he acknowledged Iran’s deep mistrust of Washington, offset in part by mediation from friendly states.

The military option, however, remains firmly on the table in Washington. Trump has asked for contingency plans for rapid strikes, wary of being drawn into a prolonged Middle Eastern conflict with domestic political costs. 

Israel’s armed forces chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, has been in the U.S. to assess possible scenarios, while the Pentagon continues to reposition air-defence systems to ensure full protection for Israel against a potential Iranian missile and drone response.