Ukraine talks inch forward in Abu Dhabi as Trump’s Davos fallout reverberates

Diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine continued this week in Abu Dhabi, where trilateral talks involving the United States, Russia and Ukraine have entered a second phase. While no breakthrough is expected, the format itself remains significant: it is still the first time since the start of the war that representatives from all three countries have engaged simultaneously.

Any diplomatic momentum remains fragile. Over the weekend, Russian strikes again hit Kyiv and Kharkiv, causing civilian casualties and reinforcing doubts about Moscow’s readiness to de-escalate even as talks proceed.

The negotiations unfold against the backdrop of ongoing controversy surrounding President Donald Trump’s appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week.

Territorial questions remain unresolved

As in previous rounds, territory remains the central obstacle. In Davos, Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed possible post-war security arrangements, including continued U.S. military support and the delivery of Patriot air-defence ammunition. 

However, no concrete framework has emerged.

In Abu Dhabi, Ukrainian and Russian delegations met again face-to-face, following three earlier rounds of Turkish-mediated talks in Istanbul last year. 

Zelensky has characterised the dialogue as cautious but necessary. The U.S. delegation is led by special envoy Steve Witkoff, with Jared Kushner continuing to play a behind-the-scenes role.

Modest expectations, narrow mandate

Expectations for a decisive outcome remain low. Russia is represented solely by a military delegation headed by Defence Intelligence chief Admiral Igor Kostyukov, signalling Moscow’s preference for a narrowly defined security dialogue.

Ukraine’s team is led by Rustem Umerov, secretary of the National Security Council, with presidential office chief Kyrylo Budanov also participating.

Parallel economic discussions are taking place without formal political mandate. Kirill Dmitriev, Russia’s presidential adviser for foreign investments, is exploring potential areas of post-conflict U.S.–Russia economic cooperation, though Western officials stress these talks remain speculative.

Frozen assets and reconstruction debates

The potential use of frozen Russian assets has also entered the discussion. Moscow has reiterated a proposal to redirect $1 billion from Russian funds seized in the U.S., originally pledged by President Vladimir Putin to Trump’s Davos launched “Board of Peace”, towards post war initiatives.

Russian officials claim that up to $5 billion in additional assets could eventually be mobilised for reconstruction, with priority likely given to territories under Russian control in eastern Ukraine.

Western diplomats remain sceptical, warning that any such use of frozen assets would raise complex legal and political questions, particularly within the EU.

Davos and the strain on transatlantic trust

Across the American political and media landscape, Trump’s rhetoric has reinforced the perception of a more transactional foreign policy. One in which territorial sovereignty and long-standing partnerships are treated as negotiable rather than foundational. 

For European observers, this has revived uncomfortable parallels with earlier periods of great-power competition.

The reaction in Europe has been particularly sharp. Trump’s dismissive comments about allied contributions, including in Afghanistan, have reopened sensitive debates around burden-sharing and amplified doubts about the durability of U.S. security guarantees. 

Responses from European leaders reflect a broader concern that transatlantic ties are no longer anchored in a common understanding of mutual obligation.

The fallout from Davos has deepened the sense that the transatlantic relationship is entering a more volatile phase. For Europe, the challenge is no longer simply managing external threats, but adapting to an American partner whose priorities are becoming increasingly difficult to predict.