Von der Leyen survives censure, but exposes deepening divides on the right

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has survived a motion of censure led by far-right MEPs, but the vote revealed widening fractures in the European Parliament, particularly within the conservative camp, and signalled a more unpredictable political landscape ahead.

The motion, initiated by Conservative Romanian MEP Gheorghe Piperea, failed to reach the required two-thirds threshold. In Thursday’s vote, 360 MEPs opposed the motion, 175 supported it, and 18 abstained, while around 100 lawmakers chose not to vote at all.

Most of the non-voters were from ECR, including Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, which opted not to participate despite being a key ally of the Commission and holding a vice-presidential role through Raffaele Fitto. The move has exposed internal divisions within ECR, raising questions about the group’s cohesion and long-term direction. The vote followed a week of visible strain inside the group, with co-leader Nicola Procaccini publicly distancing himself from the motion just days earlier.

Rather than weakening the Commission, the episode looks to have reinforced the existing governing coalition of EPP, S&D, and Renew, often referred to as the “Ursula majority.” Yet the alliance is showing signs of wear. The far-right’s challenge may have failed, but it has sharpened tensions within the mainstream political families, particularly over the EPP’s balancing act between centre and right.

EPP leader Manfred Weber appeared to signal a recalibration during the parliamentary debate earlier in the week, highlighting centre-left and liberal Commissioners in his remarks while leaving out their ECR-affiliated colleague, Vice-President Fitto. Combined with the abstention by Meloni’s party, this points to a cooling of ambitions to build any broader right-wing coalition in the Parliament.

The motion’s aftermath also appears to have shifted the internal dynamics within the majority. With von der Leyen still dependent on support from S&D and Renew, both groups are asserting greater political leverage. The S&D group, in particular, secured a major concession this week on the EU’s long-term budget, with von der Leyen pledging to safeguard social funding in a bid to shore up support.

At the same time, the failed censure motion may set a precedent for future confrontations. Though Thursday’s vote was not close, the relative ease with which a formal challenge was mounted highlights the low procedural threshold to launch such motions. Some in Brussels speculate that the Greens and the Left, still part of von der Leyen’s pro-EU camp but increasingly frustrated with her agenda, could be tempted to pursue a coordinated challenge later in the mandate.

Renew and S&D, meanwhile, have emerged from this episode emboldened: both groups are expected to play a more assertive role in shaping the Commission’s priorities.

Looking ahead, the failure of the censure motion may not bring closure but instead usher in a more volatile phase in EU politics. The Ursula majority remains intact but more fragile. The conservative right appears divided and disoriented. And the European Parliament is entering a period of heightened political tension, where alliances will be tested, and consensus more difficult to maintain.

One potential moment of political inflection looms in January 2027, when the presidency of the Parliament is due to rotate, offering a possible opportunity for broader realignment. Until then, the von der Leyen Commission continues, but with less room to manoeuvre and more pressure to deliver.