Tariffs: US-EU, Trump and von der Leyen reach preliminary agreement, 15% tariff set

The US and EU have reached a preliminary agreement on tariffs, averting—for now—the risk of a trade war starting August 1. In yesterday’s meeting in Scotland, Presidents Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen agreed that EU exports to the US will be subject to a 15% tariff, except for steel and aluminum, for which the rate will remain at 50%. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will—apparently, as the versions differ—be subject to specific sectoral tariffs. As for alcoholic beverages, negotiations remain open. On some unspecified so-called strategic products, no tariffs would apply.

Trump also stated that “the EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of American energy.” The magnate, who before the meeting had once again criticized the Union on immigration and the Green Deal, presented the deal in triumphal tones, as is his habit: “We did it. This is the most important agreement ever.”

The European Union is the United States’ largest trading partner. The agreement, which still needs to be finalized in detail, puts an end to months of uncertainty and negotiations, after Trump triggered a “universal tariff war” on April 2, only to repeatedly postpone its full implementation (the latest deadline being this coming Friday).

At this stage, the United States has opened talks with several countries, all seeking to avoid a trade war. Among the preliminary—or finalized—agreements already reached are those with China, the United Kingdom, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

Just hours before meeting the President of the European Commission, Trump had said the chances of a deal were “50/50.” The European Union, for its part, had already prepared a set of countermeasures in case the US tariffs took effect on the 30th.

The meeting between the US president and the President of the European Commission—who was accompanied by EU negotiator Maros Sefcovic and his team of experts—took place in Scotland, at Trump’s Turnberry resort on the Firth of Clyde, where the magnate is spending his vacation days golfing amid repeated public protests marked by bagpipe-accompanied slogans. According to the White House spokesperson, Trump had just finished playing “with his son Eric and some friends.”

ANSA correspondent Michele Esposito reports that at the start of the meeting, von der Leyen appeared tense, and Trump was frowning. US press sources describe a “displeased” Trump: the Epstein case continues to cast a shadow over his agenda.

Yet the substance of the agreement was already essentially ready. “It was a matter,” Esposito explains, “of figuring out how to present it without too much loss of face, and giving the US president the chance to frame it in his own way. Even the announcement format was very Trumpian: the two leaders held a press point with European and American reporters before the start of the summit; an hour later, the agreement was shared only with the press pool traveling with Trump.”

Washington obtained the exclusion of the pharmaceutical sector from the deal and essentially achieved the trade balance it had been aggressively demanding for months. “I want to personally thank Trump: he’s a great negotiator, but also a dealmaker,” von der Leyen acknowledged; “Ursula did a great job for the EU, not for us,” Trump replied with a double-edged remark.

For Europe, von der Leyen assures, the glass is half full. “Let’s not forget where we started from,” she said, emphasizing that the automotive sector was included in the 15% tariff and noting that the deal opens the doors of the American market to European businesses. The 15%, according to UvdL, will also apply to semiconductors and pharmaceuticals; and on strategic products, there will be a 0% rate—however, on these points, the versions don’t align.

Whether von der Leyen can convince all 27 EU leaders that the agreement is a good one is not a given, though initial positive reactions have come from Germany and Italy, the countries most directly affected. The reaction of the markets, initially cautious but positive, will also need to be evaluated.

At present, the Commission does not foresee any compensation measures for the most affected sectors. Von der Leyen wants to accelerate other pending trade deals, such as Mercosur and partnerships with Southeast Asia and the Far East. The most important point, she stressed, is that the agreement “will restore stability” at a time when Europe was beginning to feel the weight of prolonged uncertainty.

Whether the “Scottish pact” truly ends tensions between Washington and Brussels remains to be seen. There are still some unclear points, even if escalation seems to have been avoided for now.