Brussels rentrée 2025: Five political flashpoints to watch this Fall

The Brussels rentrée has begun. After the summer lull, Europe’s political machine kicks back into gear, packed with receptions, panels and parties.

This autumn is no ordinary reset. It’s a stress test. One year on from Mario Draghi’s blistering competitiveness report warning Europe of “slow agony” without deeper integration and investment, and in the immediate wake of a tense Washington summit on Ukraine, Brussels faces choices that will shape the Union for years

On the immediate agenda: hammering out a trillion-euro budget that could redefine the Union’s priorities for the next decade, while keeping Europe’s security commitments intact. And this unfolds against a backdrop of domestic crises and electoral battles that could tilt Europe’s balance of power.

1. Von der Leyen’s State of the Union – 10 September

The Strasbourg stage always marks the rentrée, but this year Ursula von der Leyen’s speech carries unusual weight. It will be her first State of the Union since securing a second term, and expectations are unusually high. Beyond signalling continuity, she must reset her political vision for a Parliament that is more fragmented, and where her majority now rests firmly on the centre.

Her team trails that she will lean on competitiveness, defence and democratic resilience. Expect a showcase of the new “Competitiveness Compass” and follow-up to the Draghi report. Defence will also feature prominently, against the backdrop of the recent Washington summit on Ukraine and Europe’s need to shoulder more of its own security. Socialists are pressing for a European Housing Plan and stronger social rights, the EPP for defence sovereignty, Renew for institutional reform, and the Greens for a 2040 climate target. The speech will be judged on whether it can keep this coalition stitched together.

2. France’s Confidence Vote – 8 September

Two days before Strasbourg, all eyes will be on Paris. Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote tied to his 2026 budget, which calls for €44 billion in spending cuts. Opposition parties across the spectrum have pledged to vote against him, and he is widely expected to fall.

The fallout would be more than a domestic drama. A government collapse would paralyze key EU negotiations just as the Union seeks stability amid Ukraine’s war and broader budget talks.

3. UN General Assembly and Palestinian Statehood – 9 to 11 September

The 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York will see several European countries, including Belgium and France, move to recognize Palestinian statehood. Belgium intends to make its recognition conditional on the release of Israeli hostages and the exclusion of Hamas from power in Gaza. 

The decision has already provoked sharp pushback from Israel and unease in Washington. For Brussels, the timing is delicate. It risks exposing faltering unity and ideological divides on foreign policy as the EU struggles to maintain a unified line on Ukraine. At the same time, it is a rare opportunity to assert European leadership on core global issues. Recognizing Palestine, even conditionally, would signal both moral ambition and a step toward diplomatic autonomy.

4. The Netherlands Votes – 29 October

Dutch politics return to center stage at the end of October when voters go to the polls following yet another coalition collapse. The fall came when Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV quit the government over immigration, forcing Prime Minister Dick Schoof to resign.

The PVV shocked Europe by topping the 2023 elections, but recent polling suggests its momentum is ebbing. Centrist and progressive parties sense an opening to sideline Wilders in post-election coalition talks.

This election matters twofold in Brussels. It will show whether the far-right surge that reshaped European politics last year is already peaking. And it will determine how The Hague positions itself in critical EU debates on budget and migration. A weakened PVV could smooth compromises in Brussels. A resilient one could entrench gridlock.

5. Czechia’s Populist Return – 3 to 4 October

In Prague, former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is staging a comeback bid with his ANO party. Polls suggest he has a strong chance of reclaiming the premiership, four years after being ousted. 

The campaign turned violent earlier this month, when Babiš was violently attacked at a crowded rally. The assault, condemned across the spectrum, underscored the intensity of Czech politics and the country’s deepening polarization.

At the same time, Prague’s Agriculture Ministry has moved to reclaim €205 million in EU subsidies from firms tied to Babiš’s conglomerate, Agrofert. The case has exploded onto the campaign trail, with officials framing it as overdue accountability while Babiš insists it is politically timed.

If Babiš succeeds, Czechia will likely align more closely with Hungary and Slovakia, reinforcing a Central European bloc skeptical of Brussels. This would complicate EU cohesion on rule-of-law, Ukraine aid, and fiscal oversight. Brussels would once again be forced to reckon with a resurgent populism.