Iran War Day Twelve: Tehran adapts as energy risks mount

Twelve days into the war, Iran shows little sign of collapse. 

Instead, Tehran appears to be adjusting to the conflict, launching some of its heaviest barrages since the start of the Israeli–U.S. assault while probing what it sees as vulnerabilities in American military infrastructure across the region.

Iranian forces have increasingly targeted installations linked to US deployments, including air defence systems and logistical hubs supporting troops and diplomatic missions. 

In Iraq, a drone strike hit a key U.S. diplomatic support facility in Baghdad used as a logistics centre for American personnel. No casualties were reported, but the attack underlined the growing reach of the conflict. 

U.S. officials attribute the strike to pro-Iranian Iraqi militias, part of a network of armed groups aligned with Tehran that have repeatedly targeted American positions since the start of hostilities.

Despite sustained bombardment of Iranian launch sites and missile depots, Tehran continues to demonstrate an ability to sustain operations. Iranian counterstrikes have intensified in recent days, even as U.S. officials insist that the campaign is degrading Iran’s military capabilities.

Energy markets and global fallout

The war’s impact is now extending well beyond the battlefield. 

Global energy markets have reacted sharply to the conflict and the growing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which a large share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes.

Oil prices have surged above the symbolic $100 per barrel threshold, while natural gas markets in Europe have experienced sharp volatility. 

The prospect of disruptions to shipping routes in the Gulf has raised fears of broader economic consequences if the conflict drags on.

Inside Iran, the political landscape has also shifted dramatically. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed during the opening phase of the conflict, and power has since passed to his son, Mujtaba Khamenei. 

Rather than triggering a collapse of the political system, the succession appears to have stabilised the leadership structure in Tehran, at least for now.

Meanwhile, regional hostilities are widening. Hezbollah forces in Lebanon continue to coordinate attacks against Israeli targets, while exchanges of fire along Israel’s northern frontier have intensified. The fighting has further destabilised an already fragile region.

Military operations at sea have also intensified. 

Israeli and U.S. forces report the destruction of multiple Iranian vessels suspected of laying naval mines along major oil shipping routes. Securing these corridors has become a priority as governments seek to prevent disruptions to global energy supplies.

The human toll continues to rise. According to U.S. defence officials, American casualties remain limited but injuries among deployed personnel have increased as attacks on regional bases persist. 

In Iran, civilian deaths are estimated to have surpassed 1,300 as air strikes continue. In Lebanon, Israeli operations have killed hundreds more.

Diplomatic efforts remain stalled. Tehran has rejected negotiations with Washington and insists that it will determine the conditions for ending the war. 

As the conflict enters its second week, the central question facing governments and markets alike is no longer whether the war will expand, but how long the region and the global economy can absorb its consequences.