Road to EU 2024

European Parliament Election Polls Reveal EPP’s Resilience and Project Gains for Extreme Parties

November 2023
By Maximilian Powell

In a recent release of polling data on Friday, November 3, Europe Elects has shed light on the evolving landscape of European politics as Member States prepare for the upcoming EU elections for the European Parliament. The polls indicate developments within the various political groups, with the European People’s Party (EPP) displaying resilience, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) facing setbacks, and notable gains for The Left, European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Identity and Democracy (ID) groups.

The EPP, a centre-right political force, is expected to retain its position as the largest group in the European Parliament, with a projected 173 seats. Although this represents a slight decrease from their current 176 seats, it signifies a rebound from their previous projection in August, which foresaw a loss of 16 seats. This resurgence can be attributed to national parties affiliated with the EPP, including those in Estonia, Slovenia, Poland and Germany, which have seen positive momentum in the past month.

On the other hand, the S&D, a centre-left alliance known as the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, appears to have encountered setbacks. The polls project that they are set to secure 139 seats in the EU elections, which is five less seats compared to their August projection and two less than their current 141 MEPs. This downturn is largely attributed to the expulsion of Slovak election winner Smer and the third-place finisher Hlas from the S&D due to what European socialists perceive as a rightward shift.

The Renew Europe group is expected to secure 92 seats, with a net gain of three compared to the August projection but still reflecting a loss of eight seats relative to their current presence in the European Parliament.

In terms of right-wing political movements, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) will gain 15 seats, reaching a total of 80. However, this is slightly fewer than the projection made in August.

The far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group has made significant gains, with an increase of 16 seats to a total of 76, outperforming the August projection by three seats. The right-wing AfD in Germany is expected to gain two extra seats, taking their total to 23, while the Dutch PVV adds two more seats for a total of five. France’s Rassemblement National is also set to earn one more seat, reaching a total of 24. Italy’s Lega, on the other hand, has lost one seat compared to the previous August prediction.

The Greens appear to be on a downward trajectory, with a projection of just 51 seats, marking a net loss of 21 seats. Despite Italy’s Europa Verde entering the projection with two seats, Luxembourg’s Greens have seen their two seats vanish, reflecting their challenging results in the recent national elections.

With this projection, the current von der Leyen majority (EPP, S&D and Renew) would amount to 404 out of 720 MEPs in the new mandate, making it a likely outcome for a coalition. It is important to remember that in September 2023, MEPs endorsed the European Council’s decision to increase the number of European Parliament seats by 15, bringing the total to 720 for the 2024-2029 legislative term.