Road to EU 2024

New polling acknowledges rise of right parties

January 2024
By Maximilian Powell

New polling by Europe Elects indicates a swing to the right for June’s upcoming European Parliament elections with the far-right Identity and Democracy Group (ID) on track to secure the third most seats in the Parliament.

The polling projects the European People’s Party (EPP) loses one seat, bringing its total to 178, and remains the most-voted force across Europe, coming first in nine countries: Greece, Bulgaria, Latvia, Finland, Poland, Germany, Slovenia, Croatia, and Spain.

The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group gain an additional seat, reaching a total of 143, and emerge as the most-voted force in four countries: Sweden, Lithuania, Romania, and Belgium.

The ID group will become the third most-voted party across member states with 12.5% and 93 seats, driven by expected good electoral results in France and Germany. The ID’s surge across Europe could lead to a change in the group’s leadership, as France, Germany, and the Netherlands surpass Italy’s Lega as the largest national parties, securing 27, 21, and 12 seats, respectively.

The European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) holds the fifth position in terms of seats, with 80 projected MEPs. However, it is the fourth group in terms of popular vote, securing 10.9%. This places it just above the liberal Renew, which scores 10.3%, but with 84 seats (a 24 seat drop since the 2019 election), making it the fourth largest group by seats.

The Greens/EFA are projected to have 50 seats, 24 less than in 2019.

The Left group, are projected to receive 37 seats, down from 41 in 2019. They become the most-voted force in Cyprus and Ireland. The elections could trigger a leadership change if Ireland’s Sinn Féin continues its surge, now projected to have six MEPs, compared to just one seat in 2019.

Importantly, the projections suggest that a right-wing blocking majority, composed of ID, ECR, EPP, Hungary’s top party Fidesz, and France’s far-right Reconquête, could numerically exist with 367 seats. However, this scenario remains unlikely due to incompatibility between the groups on key EU values, as well as harsh disagreements at national level.